Global Liquidity and Bitcoin Price
📌 Bitcoin Liquidity & Sentiment Signal Reference
1️⃣ Signal
Values: -1, 0, 1
| Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 1 | Short-term bullish / upside bias (final_score in top percentile) |
| 0 | Neutral (final_score in middle percentile range) |
| -1 | Short-term bearish / downside bias (final_score in bottom percentile) |
2️⃣ Final Score
Formula: final_score = liq_weight * Liquidity_Z + fng_weight * FNG_Contrarian + mom_weight * Momentum_Signal
Typical range: ~ -2.5 → +2.5 (depends on weights and inputs)
Meaning: Positive = bullish bias, Negative = bearish bias, Near zero = neutral
3️⃣ Fear & Greed Index (FNG)
Raw range: 0 → 100
Contrarian signal applied in code:
| FNG Value | Market Sentiment | fng_signal |
|---|---|---|
| 0–24 | Extreme Fear | 1 (Contrarian buy) |
| 25–49 | Fear | 0 (Neutral) |
| 50–74 | Greed | 0 (Neutral) |
| 75–100 | Extreme Greed | -1 (Contrarian sell) |
4️⃣ Momentum Signal
Values: -1, 1
| Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 1 | Short-term bullish momentum |
| -1 | Short-term bearish momentum |
5️⃣ Liquidity Z-Score
Formula: liq_z = (liq_mom – rolling_mean_180d(liq_mom)) / rolling_std_180d(liq_mom)
Typical range: ~ -3 → +3 (under normal market conditions)
| Z-Score | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| > 2 | Strong liquidity expansion → bullish for risk assets |
| 0–2 | Moderate liquidity growth → neutral / mildly bullish |
| 0 | Average liquidity growth → neutral |
| -2–0 | Moderate contraction → mildly bearish |
| < -2 | Strong contraction → bearish for risk assets |
✅ Summary Table
| Component | Range / Values | Meaning / Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Signal | -1, 0, 1 | Downside / Neutral / Upside bias |
| Final Score | ~ -2.5 → +2.5 | Combined weighted score of liquidity, sentiment, momentum |
| Fear & Greed Index | 0 → 100 | 0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed (contrarian applied) |
| FNG Contrarian | -1, 0, 1 | 1 = buy, 0 = neutral, -1 = sell |
| Momentum Signal | -1, 1 | 1 = bullish, -1 = bearish |
| Liquidity Z-Score | ~ -3 → +3 | Standard deviations above/below 180-day mean liquidity growth |
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